IT’S BS time!
It’s that time when print editors, owners and their marketing gurus pore nervously over the Nielsen readership survey results and look for something helpful to declaim in their next editions. Watch for the small promo stories popping up to clutter the news spaces. Just like post-Qantas Awards time, when everyone is a winner.
There’s a lot riding on the process, because advertising agencies use readership data to advise advertisers where to spend their bucks.
It’s meaningless to the public, who have their own ways of deciding whether to keep reading a publication.
Personally, I think there’s only one way to tell if a publication and its editor are successful - the circulation (sales) figures.
Circulation numbers are not a source of good news for most newspapers these days, although (surprisingly, for those who have been writing obits to the newspaper for years) sales trends in New Zealand over the past two years are not too bad. Annual sales of our 26 daily and Sunday papers show a 5% drop (11 million) since late 2005/early 2006 - a yearly rate of 240 million then, compared with 229 million in 2008.
However, there is a suggestion in the last ABC audit figures (nine months to June this year) that decline has begun to accelerate.
The biggest papers show most stress. The NZ Herald - which at 188,000 still has the single largest sales on any day - has slipped more than 13,000 (6.5%) in two years, with 7600 of those losses coming in the last nine-month audit.
The Sunday Star-Times (now 176,000) has plunged 25,000 (12.5%) since late 2005, while Sunday News (now 87,000) is down 8375 (8.8%), more than half of that in the last audit. In the mid-80s, it peaked at 217,000 under editor Judy McGregor.
The Dominion Post is also a worry. Tim Pankhurst has performed extraordinarily well to keep his paper’s circulation steady at just above 98,000 in four audits since late 2005, but the nine-month one ending in June shows a sudden dip by 3653 (to 94,598), a decrease of 3.6%.
Our third biggest daily paper, the Christchurch Press (87,221), is losing ground steadily, down 5244 (5.7%) since late 2005. It has a new editor since Paul Thompson was promoted last year to head Fairfax’s editorial section.
The news is better in the provinces. The Waikato Times (editor: Bryce Johns) is up since late 2005 (plus 126 papers a day, to 41,209)), although that trend was spoiled by a drop of 943 (2.2%) in the last audit.
The Otago Daily Times at 41,711 is down 1535 (3.5%) since late 2005, but new editor Murray Kirkness has got the graph going up again, making a modest .6% (263 a day) gain in the last audit.
Southland Times editor Fred Tulett is also holding his ground well, with the paper hovering around 29,000, up .7% in the last audit, but down 1.9% (571 papers a day) since late 2005.
The Taranaki Daily News (editor: Jonathan MacKenzie) is steady on 26,000, down 1.7% since late 2005.
In Hastings - where Hawkes Bay Today editor Louis Pierard has just left after steering the paper since it emerged as an amalgam of the Napier Telegraph and the Herald-Tribune in 1999 - the drop has been 6.5% to 26,226.
Most of the other daily papers are down by single figure percentages.
Ironically the Levin Daily Chronicle - which made world media headlines last month when owner APN announced its closure as a daily - actually lifted circulation 1.5% in the last audit. The two year trend was not so good, however, showing a drop of 167 papers to 2701 (down 5.9%).
Looking at overall numbers, the independent papers (dominated by the ODT) are doing best: their annual combined sales of 20 million have stayed stable. Of the two big chain owners, FairfaxNZ is doing marginally better than rival APN.
Fairfax’s eight dailies dropped 3.6 million in annual sales (down to 99 million, a fall of 3.5%), while annual sales of APN’s 10 went down 6.1% (96.5 million to 90.6 million).
Raising the price of papers has meant income has stayed just ahead of inflation: by my calculation, income was up about $10 million to $272 million over the two years. (Cover price accounts for only a small proportion of income, of course, with most coming from advertising, which is no doubt a factor in overseas trends for papers to go free to head off the negative perception of falling sales).
The Sunday paper market is particularly intriguing for those of us trying to discern patterns. On the surface, it looks as though APN Sunday supremo Rick Neville was right when he said the Sunday market had untapped sales, while Star-Times editor Cate Brett should perhaps be worried about her tenure.
Neither impression may be accurate.
Although the Herald on Sunday appears to have carved out a significant new market with its 93,665 sales (up 472 or .5% since late 2005), I have to wonder how many of those have come from the Fairfax pair (SST and Sunday News, who show a combined drop of 33,350) and how many have been cannibalised from the NZ Herald’s Saturday edition.
I recall the first weekend the Herald on Sunday appeared and spotting dozens of bundles of unopened Weekend Heralds at my local supermarket. The Herald used to sell 300,000 on a Saturday, but that was dented when the Sunday Star launched in 1986 and Aucklanders took to the idea of an Auckland-produced Sunday that wasn’t down-market Sunday News and wasn’t a Wellington paper (the Sunday Times) - ie, they were Herald readers.
The SST was always going to lose a lot of sales to a Herald Sunday paper, partly because Aucklanders hate anything that might have a link to Wellington, as Fairfax does. Remember, the SST has no daily basis on which to found its Auckland operation, so insular Aucklanders were always going to be enamoured by something connected to the local paper (even if it is a tabloid, sorry, “compact”).
I think Cate has done well to hold the damage to 35,000 (the SST was selling about 210,000 when HoS launched in 2004). She works hard to improve the product all the time. The changes are not always a success, but most are. Only a disastrous acceleration in sales losses would seriously threaten her position.
The next lot of ABC figures (at year’s end) will be the most important in decades. The relatively small losses over the past few years were on the back of a strong economy, which meant fat papers and a feeling of value for money.
As we watch papers begin to contract in the recession as advertising dries up, audiences already feeling the personal impact of the recession, will prefer bread and milk instead of a paper. It was just such a trend that wiped out half Sunday News’ circulation in the 80s.
Rick was right when he detected opportunities in the Sunday readership market, but he might be 30 years too late. In the mid-70s, sales of Sunday papers and Saturday night sports editions - at 750,000 a weekend - were twice today’s total of about 350,000.